[Xmca-l] Re: COVID-19 Forecasting Tournament

[Anthony Barra]

Very well said, and quite frankly, spoken like someone with pretty good
odds . . .

On Fri, Apr 24, 2020 at 4:09 PM Martin Packer <mpacker@cantab.net> wrote:

> Anthony,
>
> Your question happens to coincide with some ongoing reflections on my
> part, and my conclusion has been that prediction here is not easy.
>
> 1. the pandemic is a black swan: an unlikely event with large
> consequences. These are by nature difficult to predict and so when they
> occur their consequences are also hard to anticipate.
>
> 2. the lack of adequate planning means that achieving desired outcomes is
> uncertain
>
> 3. outcomes will depend on human decisions and choices, which themselves
> are notoriously hard to predict
>
> 4. outcomes also depend on scientific and technological advances whose
> character and timing cannot be known in advance
>
> But Tetlock’s chimps may know more than I do.
>
> cheers
>
> Martin
>
>
>
>
> On Apr 24, 2020, at 2:54 PM, Anthony Barra <anthonymbarra@gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
> "Another chance to discover: do i know as much as i thought about the
> world, including covid19? Sign up by 5pm ET, 4/27 for a forecasting
> tournament to compete against soft benchmarks (chimps) & tough ones
> (superforecasters)" - Phil Tetlock (superforecaster)
>
> As a casual reader of this listserv, I can only conclude: Somebody from
> this group is gonna win, aren't they?  (*I'm a very good predictor by the
> way . . . )
>
> "EXPERIENCE OUR COVID-19 FORECASTING STUDY"
>
> Curious about how you size up against world-class problem-solvers and
> forecasters – and about how much better your can get?
>
> Please join our coronavirus forecasting tournament that will let you
> compare your performance against a range of benchmarks, from dart-tossing
> chimps to seasoned professionals and Superforecasters."
> https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.gjp2.org/upenn__;!!Mih3wA!RlW0tkuTB4qPSF1dIL8xcKOvzwUeY2vkwTWZzbXzwPuZaM5pJeBBiMbIon4p8JPCQNV7Pw$ 
> <https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.gjp2.org/upenn__;!!Mih3wA!UlBe6PxFxP8uVMleh4-NQ8dF1xWFNhTeOhQbL2zgWdHjfSXxPMYC_ubaqzDHXizGAvsuwA$>
>
>
> ---> How much fun does this sound! <---
>
> The mix of intelligence, confidence, certainty, and humility that is
> regularly on display here tells me: somebody from this group is gonna win;
> the odds are against it being me, but someone here can do it.
>
> Tell me I'm wrong . . .
>
> Or, tell me . . . who in this group would you say has a great shot at
> winning (and therefore should enter!)
>
> ???
>
> Anthony
>
> *good stuff from your friend Andy and others here: https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://tiny.cc/33rpnz__;!!Mih3wA!RlW0tkuTB4qPSF1dIL8xcKOvzwUeY2vkwTWZzbXzwPuZaM5pJeBBiMbIon4p8JNOpB_oaA$ 
> <https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://tiny.cc/33rpnz__;!!Mih3wA!UlBe6PxFxP8uVMleh4-NQ8dF1xWFNhTeOhQbL2zgWdHjfSXxPMYC_ubaqzDHXiwFKajCBA$>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
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