[Xmca-l] Re: COVID-19 Forecasting Tournament

[Martin Packer]

Anthony,

Your question happens to coincide with some ongoing reflections on my part, and my conclusion has been that prediction here is not easy.

1. the pandemic is a black swan: an unlikely event with large consequences. These are by nature difficult to predict and so when they occur their consequences are also hard to anticipate.

2. the lack of adequate planning means that achieving desired outcomes is uncertain

3. outcomes will depend on human decisions and choices, which themselves are notoriously hard to predict

4. outcomes also depend on scientific and technological advances whose character and timing cannot be known in advance

But Tetlock’s chimps may know more than I do.

cheers

Martin




> On Apr 24, 2020, at 2:54 PM, Anthony Barra <anthonymbarra@gmail.com <mailto:anthonymbarra@gmail.com>> wrote:
> 
> "Another chance to discover: do i know as much as i thought about the world, including covid19? Sign up by 5pm ET, 4/27 for a forecasting tournament to compete against soft benchmarks (chimps) & tough ones (superforecasters)" - Phil Tetlock (superforecaster)
> 
> As a casual reader of this listserv, I can only conclude: Somebody from this group is gonna win, aren't they?  (*I'm a very good predictor by the way . . . )
> 
> "EXPERIENCE OUR COVID-19 FORECASTING STUDY"
> 
> Curious about how you size up against world-class problem-solvers and forecasters – and about how much better your can get?
> 
> Please join our coronavirus forecasting tournament that will let you compare your performance against a range of benchmarks, from dart-tossing chimps to seasoned professionals and Superforecasters."  https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.gjp2.org/upenn__;!!Mih3wA!W-ChMPlUk7ygsahYzcWHqg4uiVDdQeKRZMRKXh2yCQCCIvJHgzivXyvF9Dhi6aBPQJYmoA$  <https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.gjp2.org/upenn__;!!Mih3wA!UlBe6PxFxP8uVMleh4-NQ8dF1xWFNhTeOhQbL2zgWdHjfSXxPMYC_ubaqzDHXizGAvsuwA$>   
> 
> ---> How much fun does this sound! <---
> 
> The mix of intelligence, confidence, certainty, and humility that is regularly on display here tells me: somebody from this group is gonna win; the odds are against it being me, but someone here can do it.
> 
> Tell me I'm wrong . . . 
> 
> Or, tell me . . . who in this group would you say has a great shot at winning (and therefore should enter!) 
> 
> ???
> 
> Anthony
> 
> *good stuff from your friend Andy and others here: https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://tiny.cc/33rpnz__;!!Mih3wA!W-ChMPlUk7ygsahYzcWHqg4uiVDdQeKRZMRKXh2yCQCCIvJHgzivXyvF9Dhi6aCG1I5anA$  <https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://tiny.cc/33rpnz__;!!Mih3wA!UlBe6PxFxP8uVMleh4-NQ8dF1xWFNhTeOhQbL2zgWdHjfSXxPMYC_ubaqzDHXiwFKajCBA$>
> 
> 





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