[Xmca-l] Re: COVID-19 Forecasting Tournament

[Andy Blunden]

Anthony, I have read Phil Tetlock's book and found it very 
interesting. I had already gathered that you had read and 
liked the book as well. There is a lot to be said for the 
kind of discipline Tetlock suggests. I don't have the book 
in front of me at the moment, but I seem to recall (perhaps 
you can verify this) that in the last chapter or two he says 
that there are transformative events which are essentially 
unpredictable in both their occurrence and their catharsis. 
The COVID pandemic one of these - a lot of people were 
saying over the past few years that the world was "due" 
another serious pandemic and that we were unprepared, but 
no-one can claim to have predicted this pandemic, let alone 
its final outcome a decade from now. Just as almost no-one 
predicted the collapse of the USSR or the outbreak of WW1.

/Perezhivanie /are essentially unpredictable experiences of 
this type. Which is why I have been relatively restrained in 
making predictions about where it will go. I don't even try 
to predict that it will be cured by the use of malaria drugs.

Andy

------------------------------------------------------------
*Andy Blunden*
Hegel for Social Movements <https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://brill.com/view/title/54574__;!!Mih3wA!Q7jv7wgSUDQ3HL4BeRICk5ZLycnt_x0TlHSIPRtKWlGxNhTNBpkksqwkkQnZgMjDwzpOwA$ >
Home Page <https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.ethicalpolitics.org/ablunden/index.htm__;!!Mih3wA!Q7jv7wgSUDQ3HL4BeRICk5ZLycnt_x0TlHSIPRtKWlGxNhTNBpkksqwkkQnZgMiRWRu00A$ >
On 25/04/2020 5:54 am, Anthony Barra wrote:
> "Another chance to discover: do i know as much as i 
> thought about the world, including covid19? Sign up by 5pm 
> ET, 4/27 for a forecasting tournament to compete against 
> soft benchmarks (chimps) & tough ones (superforecasters)" 
> - Phil Tetlock (superforecaster)
>
> As a casual reader of this listserv, I can only conclude: 
> Somebody from this group is gonna win, aren't they?  (*I'm 
> a very good predictor by the way . . . )
>
> "EXPERIENCE OUR COVID-19 FORECASTING STUDY"
>
> Curious about how you size up against world-class 
> problem-solvers and forecasters – and about how much 
> better your can get?
>
> Please join our coronavirus forecasting tournament that 
> will let you compare your performance against a range of 
> benchmarks, from dart-tossing chimps to seasoned 
> professionals and Superforecasters." 
> https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.gjp2.org/upenn__;!!Mih3wA!Q7jv7wgSUDQ3HL4BeRICk5ZLycnt_x0TlHSIPRtKWlGxNhTNBpkksqwkkQnZgMj-MhEgVA$  
> <https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.gjp2.org/upenn__;!!Mih3wA!UlBe6PxFxP8uVMleh4-NQ8dF1xWFNhTeOhQbL2zgWdHjfSXxPMYC_ubaqzDHXizGAvsuwA$> 
>
>
> ---> How much fun does this sound! <---
>
> The mix of intelligence, confidence, certainty, and 
> humility that is regularly on display here tells me: 
> somebody from this group is gonna win; the odds are 
> against it being me, but someone here can do it.
>
> Tell me I'm wrong . . .
>
> Or, tell me . . . who in this group would you say has a 
> great shot at winning (and therefore should enter!)
>
> ???
>
> Anthony
>
> *good stuff from your friend Andy and others here: 
> https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://tiny.cc/33rpnz__;!!Mih3wA!Q7jv7wgSUDQ3HL4BeRICk5ZLycnt_x0TlHSIPRtKWlGxNhTNBpkksqwkkQnZgMgDJUuTXg$  
> <https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://tiny.cc/33rpnz__;!!Mih3wA!UlBe6PxFxP8uVMleh4-NQ8dF1xWFNhTeOhQbL2zgWdHjfSXxPMYC_ubaqzDHXiwFKajCBA$>
>
>
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